MESSAGE ASSISTANT SECRETARY MERCEDITA A. SOMBILLA National Economic and Development Authority
Good morning to all of you and thank you very much for gracing us with your presence in this book launching event.
Before I discuss the overview of the book, I would just like to provide a brief background on how it was developed. The book is actually an output of a collaborative research project between NEDA, through its Agriculture Natural Resources and Environment Staff or ANRES, and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), an international agricultural policy research institute, with support from CGIAR Research Programs on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). This research had the following key objectives:
• to establish a decision-support mechanism on agricultural, climate change and food security policies, that uses newly generated data, modelling output and innovative scenario assessment;
• to integrate an innovative set of data, models and scenarios in the areas of climate change, agriculture and food security in the NEDA’s development processes particularly in planning, project evaluation, and investment programming; and
• to capacitate staff in analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of policies and explore the resilience and the provisioning capacity of the agricultural sector given future climate scenarios
The results of the modeling exercises together with the results of the scoping studies and the review and assessment of literatures contributed to the production of this book aimed to become a useful handbook not only to national policymakers but also to other groups and stakeholders, in various sets of activities especially related to Philippine agriculture under changing climate conditions. It serves as guide in implementing rural programs, research projects and development or amendment of policies related to agriculture and climate change. It benefited from comprehensive data collection and desk review; series of spatial and economic modelling work; and stakeholder consultations through workshops and for a and has gone through the standard peer review procedure of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
The book contains twelve (12) Chapters and structured in four (4) parts. Part I begins by laying out the context of Philippine agriculture, along with relevant historical evidence and information on the challenges of the sector. Part II of the book focuses on the challenges climate change impose on the Philippine agricultural sector and strategies that need to be implemented to respond to these challenges. Part III of the book presents the results of economic modeling work designed to explore the country’s potential agricultural “futures” under climate change. Part IV provides the summary and recommendations.
Let me provide you brief description of each Book’s Chapter of the book and I would like to request authors to stand as I mention their names.
¨ Chapter 1 is authored by Dr. Majah-Leah Ravago, Dr. Arsenio Balisacan, and yours truly. This Chapter provides an overview of the patterns, composition, policies, and institutional framework that have influenced the performance of the agricultural sector in recent years, along with the changing dynamics of agricultural supply and demand in the context of a growing economy, urbanization, regional market integration, and climate change. It concludes with a discussion of the policy and institutional challenges inherent in enabling agriculture to form a key pillar in the country’s pursuit of inclusive growth, poverty reduction, and sustainable development.
¨ Chapter 2, is authored by Dr. Rodel D. Lasco and Mr. David M. Wilson and (both couldn’t come today). This Chapter offers a review of the evidence of impacts of land-use change in the Philippines in the past twenty years, including the role of agricultural expansion on deforestation within both regional and global contexts. The effects of a changing climate on land-use and ecosystem services, which are key to agricultural productivity, as well as the contributory role of land-use change to global greenhouse gas emissions are exhaustively discussed in this chapter.
¨ Chapter 3 on the country’s state of water resources is authored by Dr. Arlene Inocencio. It examines agriculture sector’s readiness to respond to potential climate impacts on water supply and demand and especially the changing dynamics of the latter across agricultural, industrial, and domestic uses. It outlines the government/public investments in water for agriculture in the past four decades and stresses the need for projected climate change impacts to be factored into agricultural water-sector planning, management, and investments.
¨ Chapter 4 authored by Dr. Felino P. Lansigan, examines climate change effects and impacts on agricultural production, current and potential responses to climate risks, challenges and imperatives in agriculture. The implications of climate variability and climate change on the agricultural sector are discussed, along with best agricultural practices and technology- and institutionally based adaptation strategies. It highlights specific policies that need to be addressed to enhance farmers’ resilience to climate risks.
¨ Chapter 5, authored by Dr. Asa Jose Sajise, Mr. Dieldre Harder, and Mr. Paul Joseph Ramirez (all couldn’t come today), looks at the effect of agricultural productivity growth (or the lack of it) on the environment. The chapter describes the state of the Philippine natural resource base and extent of environmental externalities that have had effect on agricultural productivity. The impact of climate change is illustrated by assessing the sustainability of productivity growth for rice through a case study on greenhouse gas emissions.
¨ Since gender equality is integral for decision-making process, Chapter 6, authored by Dr. Maria Emilinda Mendoza, focuses on the gender-differentiated impacts of climate change, emphasizing the importance of mainstreaming gender issues into climate change–related policies and programmes. The chapter demonstrates the importance of determining women’s capabilities and vulnerabilities in being able to contribute to viable adaptation and mitigation measures, along with the challenge of supporting women’s ability to participate in decision-making processes related to such responses.
¨ Chapter 7, authored by Dr. Marites Tiongco, presents the country’s adaptation and mitigation strategies, trends in government budget allocations; and the roles of the institutions, together with their capacity and effectiveness in addressing climate change risks in the agriculture sector.
¨ Chapter 8 authored by Drs. Majah-Leah Ravago, James Roumasset, and Karl Jandoc, provides a conceptual framework for understanding risk management and resilience at farm-household and national levels. The authors apply the framework at the household level to explore how farm households cope with natural disasters such as typhoons, droughts, and floods. At the national level, the discussion focuses on how public policy can be designed to maximize economic welfare both before and after a disaster occurs.
¨ Chapter 9, is authored by Dr. Timothy Thomas, Mr. Vijay Nazareth (couldn’t come), and Mr. Renato Folledo, Jr. (confirmed attendance). The chapter describes and presents the results of the biophysical approach to modelling alternative agricultural futures under climate change. Results from the biophysical models from this chapter are used as input data to inform the models of both Chapter 10 and Chapter 11.
¨ Chapter 10, authored by Dr. Nicostrato Perez and Dr. Mark Rosegrant, used a partial equilibrium agricultural model, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to analyse and simulate the: (a) agricultural impacts and costs of climate change; (b) effectiveness of existing and emerging production technologies; and (c) contribution of demographic, development, and investment policies to food security and climate change adaptation efforts.
¨ Chapter 11, authored by Mr. Angga Pradesha and Mr. Sherman Robinson, provide an assessment of how the combined effects of productivity and world price shocks that originate from climate change would affect the long-run performance of agricultural sector in the Philippine. The analyses will focus on how climate change affects agricultural production, income distribution and the macroeconomic environment in the country. We also examine policy options for achieving food self-sufficiency that have been long-implemented by the government. We will then assess alternative policy options as adaptation strategies to climate change by laying out the cost and benefit analysis for each policy scenario to help the decision-making process in seeking for better future.
¨ Finally, Chapter 12 is authored by Dr. Mark W. Rosegrant and yours truly. It identifies the key gaps and challenges related to efforts in responding to the threat of climate change and synthesized the policy and institutional recommendations from the reserch studies to address these gaps and enable the agricultural sector to perform its role as a key pillar for the country’s pursuit of inclusive growth, poverty reduction, and sustainable development.
Strategies and investments options for agriculture, including the pros and cons of its implementation and operationalization, are identified and summarized for policymakers, development planners, and agricultural scientists.
I hope this overview of the book rouses your interest to get hold and read the book and make use of its key findings o in your respective sectors.
Before I end this presentation, may I ask all author-contributors to stand up to be recognized.
Thank you and good morning again to all. Merry Christmas to all.
